Analysis

Los Angeles has four years to make inroads on the largest population of unsheltered people in the U.S. If we fail, 2028 is likely to be a disaster for unhoused people and LA’s reputation.

Lack of income and the high cost of housing cause homelessness. The median monthly income of unsheltered individuals is $387 a month.

Sixty-one percent of all unsheltered working-age homeless individuals are engaged in work activities. This entails looking for a job much more often than having a job, but the motivation of homeless individuals to support themselves through work is an under-utilized asset for society.

Surprisingly, 70 percent of people sleeping outdoors are homeless for the first time. The age when they become homeless is increasingly young, 25 years old on average. The average amount of time they report being homeless has increased to 1,927 days. During this time, more people are getting criminal records.

Despite all of the calls to increase the supply of rental housing, things are heading in the opposite direction. New building permits in Los Angeles during the first half of 2024 were 10 percent lower than last year and 60 percent lower than five years ago.

Fewer new apartments going up is likely to result in higher rents and more homelessness.

This paper concludes with 10 specific actions that will make Los Angeles a credible host for the 2028 Olympic Games. Foremost is ensuring that individuals have an income through employment or a basic income grant, and ensuring that they are stably housed.

Other priories include identifying and helping high-risk individuals before they become persistently homeless, just eviction policies to protect renters, and record expungement and jail diversion programs.

The Olympic Games demonstrate the discipline, grace and accomplishment of elite athletes. Every host city attempts to mirror the beauty of the games, yet every city is home to ugliness, injustice and inequality as well as beauty, kindness and accomplishment. Los Angeles’ most glaring flaw is the nation’s largest population of unsheltered homeless individuals living on its streets. Masking this tragic flaw by criminalizing and displacing street residents will mark Los Angeles as a city of pretension rather than character. LA has four years to step up to the values in the original Olympic Charter of developing harmony and preserving human dignity.1

The International Olympic Committee calls for upholding human rights in organizing and delivering the Olympic Games, including the safety and well-being of residents.2 This paper identifies who is falling out of housing and onto the streets, why this happens, and concludes with 10 specific actions that will make Los Angeles a credible host for the 2028 games.

Barring truly extraordinary efforts and big changes, the 2028 Olympics are likely to be a disaster for unhoused people and LA’s reputation. The Olympics bring out some of the best in people and the host city. Unfortunately, when it comes to unhoused people, the Olympics often bring out the worst. In the months before the Paris Games, French police rounded up thousands of unhoused people and put them on buses to other parts of the country. A health worker described this as “social cleansing,” saying, “they are hiding misery under the rug.”3

In presenting a sanitized version of themselves, the French were following a precedent set by Los Angeles. Before the 1984 Olympics, the Los Angeles Police Department sterilized the streets, but without the buses or any suggestion from the police as to where homeless people could go to avoid arrest or harassment.4 One suggestion came from the city council member representing downtown, Gilbert Lindsay, who proposed that the city force unhoused people into an LAPD-run “drunk farm” north of Santa Clarita that the city had created in the 1950s to hold up to 1,500 prisoners.

The Supreme Court recently granted cities more power to arrest, cite and fine people who sleep outside in public places — overturning six years of legal protections for homeless residents in California and other western states.5 The prospect of more displacement of homeless individuals is imminent given Governor Newsom’s order to clear encampments and his example, trash bag in hand, personally helping clear a homeless encampment in Los Angeles.6

Displacement is expedient but not effective. Homelessness is not a moral lapse that can be deterred through punishment. It is the outcome of inadequate incomes and unaffordable housing. The solution is to restore individuals’ place in the economy and the housed community.

Mayor Karen Bass has made clear that if she is mayor in 2028, the shameful actions of the spring of 1984 will not be repeated, in part because the very prospect of the “LA Olympics will help be a catalyst to LA finally addressing homelessness in a way that is long-term, that eventually ends street homelessness.”7

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However, just one day after Mayor Bass’ pledge, the city council authorized traffic officers to enforce parking laws by towing RVs that people live in. These dwellings are the only housing option for people who cannot afford rent and are lucky enough to have an RV. They provide better living quarters than a tent or makeshift shelter. However, the council treated RVs as blight rather than housing. They could have chosen to provide safe parking for these dwelling units of last resort.

Mayor Bass’ signature “Inside Safe” program has moved entire encampments of unhoused people into “interim housing” in motels with which the City contracts. The County’s “Pathway Home” program operates in a similar fashion. Both programs have “resolved” encampments and moved people into interim housing in motels.

As of July 25, 2024, Pathway Home had “resolved” 17 encampments, removed 422 RV’s, moved 692 individuals into interim housing, and permanently housed 114 people. Data on Inside Safe through December 12, 2023, shows that the program “addressed” 56 encampments, moved 2,870 people indoors (presumably in motels), and moved 609 people into permanent housing.8

When the interim housing is in an Inside Safe or Pathway Home motel room, the cost averages more than $105 per day.9 The tab for the room, which does not include the costs of other services provided, for 262 days is $31,680 per person. If that model were scaled up to serve the estimated 52,365 unsheltered homeless persons in the County, the cost of providing just interim housing while people await permanent housing would be over $1.6 billion. Clearly, the current system is not sustainable. Worse yet, as the 2028 Olympics approach, the motel-based models of Inside Safe and Pathway Home will break down, as motel owners either terminate their agreements or demand rates comparable to what they will be able to charge tourists.

Both City and County officials understand this information. In an interview with KCRW radio, Mayor Bass said, “I am hopeful… that the LA Olympics will help be a catalyst to LA finally addressing homelessness in a way that is long-term, that eventually ends street homelessness.”10 She also recognized that Inside Safe is very expensive, requiring upwards of several thousand dollars a month per motel room, plus the cost of other services. She described the core problem as follows:

“Even if you fast-track something, it still takes months and months. And the expensive thing in a motel versus the expense of being in

some other type of housing is where we need to move to. And so, one thing about the market that is positive is that builders and architects are now coming up with more cost-effective ways of building interim housing that we could put up quicker than we would permanent housing. And so that's what we have to do because the model we're using now is in response to an emergency, but it's far too expensive.”11

If there is a plan to use these cost-effective ways to produce and site even the most modest housing in the next 48 months, it has not been made public. Even if there were a plan, it is not clear that it can be executed before 2028

The Paris Olympics are going to be a tough act for Los Angeles to follow. LA made its fame as Tinseltown, a city of facades. Tens of thousands unsheltered people living on the street are a spoiler. The challenge is for Los Angeles to solve this problem as a city that has come of age by protecting the wellbeing of its residents rather than as a city of facades.

This paper describes the homeless challenge Los Angeles needs to solve before the 2028 Olympics, and how it can solve it with clean hands.

The 2024 homeless count may offer some hope. Although the total of 71,201 homeless individuals was almost the same as the 71,320 people in 2023, the number who were unsheltered and sleeping in a place not meant for human habitation was five percent lower than in 2023. This was because the number of homeless people accommodated in shelters and temporary housing was 14 percent higher than in the previous year.

The increase in the number of homeless individuals who were housed may be attributable to the City of Los Angeles’ Inside Safe program and the Department of Veterans Affairs’ One Team initiative.12 The reduction in veteran’s homelessness was primarily driven by using Housing Choice Vouchers to rent apartments from private landlords and providing support services. There are still thousands of units of rental housing available throughout the county, if the supply of vouchers is increased.

Figure 1 shows results over the past 15 years from the point-in-time count conducted by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA).13

Over the 15 years from 2009 to 2024, homelessness has increased by an average of four percent each year, with similar average increases in the number of both sheltered and unsheltered individuals. This long-term trend is driven by forces that are deeply embedded in Los Angeles’ economy – economic inequality and increasing housing costs.

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Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority.

Seventy percent of homeless individuals have been unsheltered, on average, throughout these 15 years. They are Los Angeles’ Olympic challenge.

The USC researchers who support the count estimate that there was a margin of error of 1,592 people, or 2.2 percent, in the 2024 homeless count.14 The margin of error is greater than the 119-person decrease from the 2023 homeless count to the 2024 count. Purposeful, restorative intervention is required to turn the tide of homelessness in Los Angeles.

Duration of Homelessness

Homelessness is a transient episode in the lives of almost half (46 percent) of people who become homeless. It is the low point in a financial emergency. For others it is many continuing chapters of their lives.

Almost one-third (31 percent) of the point-in-time homeless population is estimated to have been homeless for four months or less during the past year, as shown in Figure 2. Another 15 percent have been homeless for four

Source: Economic Roundtable population model, from report “Estimating the Annual Size of the Homeless Population in Los Angeles Using Point-in-Time Data,” applied to 2024 homeless count.

to 11 months. And slightly more than half (54 percent) have been homeless for 12 or more months.15

Total Population Experiencing Homelessness in 2024

There is annual turnover within the portion of the homeless population that is unsheltered for less than a year, so the annual population is almost twice as large as the point-in-time population – an estimated 139,151 people compared to 71,201 people in the homeless count.

The estimated distribution of the annual population based on number of months spent homeless is shown in Figure 3. Well over a third (39 percent) of the annual homeless population is estimated to have been homeless for four months or less during the past year. Twenty-four percent have been homeless for four to 11 months. And slightly more than third (35 percent) have been homeless for 12 or more months.

The most striking feature in Figure 3 is the population with 12 or more months of homelessness that is carried over from one year to the next. The duration of the homeless stints they report ranges from one year to 60

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Source: Economic Roundtable population model, from report “Estimating the Annual Size of the Homeless Population in Los Angeles Using Point-in-Time Data,” applied to LAHSA’s total point-in-time homeless counts, 2009-2024.

years. This is the largest, most visible and most harmed group of homeless residents.

There is a first day of homelessness for individuals who go on to become persistently homeless. There is far less social, medical and legal wreckage in their lives on the first day than there is after a year, or after 60 years, and greater likelihood that interventions less costly than permanently subsidized housing will enable them to escape homelessness.

The crucial challenges are, first, to prevent homelessness through jail diversion, shelter diversion, emergency rent assistance, landlord conflict mitigation services, employment, and income support. The second crucial challenge is to shorten the amount of time that people spend being homeless.

For example, 15 percent of unsheltered residents are estimated to be homeless for one to two years. They make up 10 percent of the total homeless population. If just this one unsheltered cohort that entered homelessness in 2023 and continued to be homeless in 2024 had been able to escape homelessness in 2023, the homeless population in 2024 would be 10 percent smaller.

Interventions that enable people to escape homelessness more quickly will have a cascading impact on shrinking the homeless population in following years. More early exits are needed for every homeless cohort.

Restorative implications: Prevent homelessness through jail and shelter diversion, emergency rent assistance, landlord conflict mitigation, landlord damage mitigation, employment, and income support. Increase early exits from homelessness through interventions such as ready access to housing choice vouchers and support services that result in stable housing. The Roundtable’s predictive screening tools were developed to support early interventions by accurately identifying individuals who are likely to be homeless for more than one year so that they can be helped before, or soon, after they become homeless rather than after long-term harm has accumulated in their lives.16

For every one person in Los Angeles County who meets HUD’s definition of homelessness, an estimated 1.8 additional people are couch homeless.17

People fit HUD’s definition if they are sleeping in a place that is public or not meant for human habitation or a homeless shelter.18 People fit HUD’s

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, demographic surveys 2009 to 2024, and Economic Roundtable model for estimating the distribution of types of homelessness.

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definition of chronic homelessness if they have a disability and have been homeless for 12 or more months.19

However, there are many other people who do not have a place of their own to sleep, but who find temporary shelter with accommodating relatives, friends or acquaintances. This is sometimes called couch surfing. If they do not pay any rent, we describe it as couch homelessness. Their sleeping modalities – couch, street or homeless shelter – may shift over time based on opportunity and necessity in their lives.

Some individuals live in informal housing that is affordable for them, for example, paying rent for a room in a shared housing unit. These household members are not part of the homeless population.

The annual homeless count is used in Figure 4 to estimate the point-in- time number of individuals in Los Angeles County experiencing each type of homelessness. In both 2023 and 2024, over 127,000 people are estimated to have been couch homeless because they did not have a place of their own to sleep. These individuals are part of the unhoused population that needs restorative interventions.

Restorative implication: The scope of homelessness is larger than the population identified in the annual homeless count. Couch-homeless individuals need employment or basic income interventions that enable them to pay rent and have a claim to housing. This includes supported employment programs and employer incentives to hire people who are unhoused or at risk for homelessness.

Homeless individuals most often explain being homeless as an economic problem. Almost half (47 percent) of unsheltered homeless adults say that the reason they are homeless is unemployment and lack of money. This factor—encompassing unemployment, lack of cash aid, acute poverty, and inability to pay for shelter—is identified roughly three times more often than any other factor as the cause of homelessness, as shown in Figure 5.

The next most frequently reported cause of homelessness is alcohol or drug use, identified by 17 percent of respondents.

Alcohol or drug abuse and mental illness are sometimes pointed to as the cause of homelessness, but only 26 percent of respondents identified one or both of these problems as the reason they were homeless. Three-quarters of respondents (74 percent) said that they were homeless for reasons other than substance abuse or mental illness.

Social disconnection–breakdown of ties with other people–is another primary reason given for homelessness. Seven reasons, cited by an

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, average percent of respondents identifying each reason in the 2017 to 2024 demographic surveys. Respondents could identify more than one reason, so the total of all reasons identified is greater than 100%. All reasons for being homeless cited by 5% or more of respondents in an any year are shown.

unduplicated total of 36 percent of unsheltered individuals, point to loss of personal connections with other people as leading to loss of housing:20

1. Conflicts with family or household members: 14 percent

2. No friends or family available: 10 percent

3. Break-up, divorce, or separation: 9 percent

4. Death or illness of family member or child: 8 percent

5. Domestic violence, abuse, dating violence: 4 percent

6. Kicked out due to sexual orientation or gender identity: 1 percent

7. Left or aged out of foster care: 0.4 percent

Restorative implications: Greatly expand efforts to address homelessness as a problem of poverty, including help in getting a job or providing a basic income. Increase access to, and availability of, mental health and substance abuse recovery services. The interventions must achieve the basic objective of enabling individuals to have stable housing. After individuals have a place to live, service components that encourage meaningful activities, provide opportunities for part- or full-time employment, and help to build positive social support networks and community ties are needed.

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Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, responses to the homeless count demographic surveys 2015 to 2024.

The unsheltered homeless population in 2024 was made up predominantly (68 percent) of individuals who were homeless for the first time, as shown in Figure 6. This is a growing trend. In 2015, only 45 percent of the unsheltered population was homeless for the first time.

Part of the explanation for this trend may be the long-term growth in homelessness, which has meant that more people have become newly homeless each year.

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, responses to the homeless count demographic surveys 2016 to 2024.

One explanation for why new arrivals are increasingly on the street rather than in shelters is that there are not been enough shelter beds in the communities where they were needed. Another explanation is that some shelters impose curfews, require abstinence, are inadequately managed, and feel unsafe.

Unsheltered homeless individuals have been entering homelessness at increasingly young ages.21 The average age when they were first homeless was 16 percent lower in 2024 than in 2016, 25 rather than 29 years, as shown in Figure 7. Meanwhile, the average 46-year-old age of the total unsheltered population remained almost unchanged over those years.

The fact that unsheltered individuals are entering homelessness at increasingly young ages, but that the average age of the total unsheltered population has remained virtually unchanged suggests the presence of an aging population whose increasing years offset the increasing youthfulness of new entrants into homelessness.

Restorative implications: New entrants into homelessness have an increasing number of potentially productive years ahead of them. Enabling them to have a basic income that stabilizes their lives, including income earned through employment, when feasible, is cost effective for the public.

The duration of the average stint of unsheltered homelessness grew one year longer from 2016 to 2024, as shown in Figure 8.

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, Responses to the homeless count demographic surveys 2016-2024.

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In 2016, the average unsheltered individual had been homeless 1,573 days, or 4.3 years. By 2024, this had increased to 1,927 days or 5.3 years.

Restorative implications: Protracted homelessness results in greater social isolation, more frequent medical and mental health problems, and higher public costs.22 This argues for early, restorative intervention to house, stabilize and, when feasible, employ homeless individuals.

Unsheltered individuals have consistently reported significant levels of educational attainment, as shown in Figure 9. Five demographic surveys, conducted from 2009 to 2024, have asked individuals how much education they have completed.23

The average responses from these surveys show that 65 percent have completed high school and 28 percent have completed some college.

• 35 percent have not completed high school • 36 percent have completed high school • 23 percent have attended college but not received a B.A. degree • 5 percent have B.A. degrees

Restorative implications: There is significant human capital among unsheltered individuals. Many have the potential to be gainfully employed

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, homeless count demographic surveys 2009, 2015, 2022, 2023, 2024. Total does not equal 100 percent because of rounding error.

if they are supported in becoming housed, recovering from trauma and stabilizing their lives.24

Displacement through criminalization is already underway. The likelihood that unsheltered individuals will have justice system involvement has increased markedly over the past five years, as shown in Figure 10.

From 2015 through 2018, an average of 60 percent of unsheltered individuals reported that their history included prison, jail, adult or juvenile probation, parole, or juvenile detention. By 2020 through 2024, the share reporting justice system entanglement had increased to an average of almost three-quarters of the population, 73 percent.

An investigation by Human Rights Watch found that while homeless people make up only one percent of LA’s population, they accounted for 38 percent of all citations and arrests from 2016 to 2022.25

Restorative implications: Justice for unsheltered individuals should not be solely punitive. It should include genuine opportunities for individuals to stabilize their lives. This includes significantly expanding the District Attorney’s record expungement programs, especially for crimes related to homelessness and poverty. The presence of law enforcement in clearing encampments should be complemented by access to short-term and permanent housing, and engagement of health, mental health and substance abuse services, and case managers who can provide whole person support. Community colleges can provide training that helps individuals become more employable.

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The real income reported by unsheltered individuals has been volatile, with only a small increase over the 15 years from 2009 to 2024, as shown in Figure 11. The reported median monthly income, adjusted to 2023 dollars, was $318 in 2009 and $387 in 2024.

Los Angeles County’s General Relief grant of $221 a month for destitute adults is the primary source of income for many unsheltered individuals. The amount of the grant has remained unchanged since 1985.26 The consumer price index has increased 209 percent since then, and HUD’s benchmark for the fair market rent in Los Angeles has increased 346 percent.27 The steady decline in the real value of the grant is an important explanation for why Figure 11 does not show more income gains.

The brightest spot in the incomes of unsheltered individuals was in 2020, when the universal cash payments made during the Covid pandemic increased the median income of unsheltered individuals to $404 (in 2023 dollars). Incomes dropped in 2022, when the Covid payments had ended, and then increased to $387 in 2024. This income growth is a promising trend, but still far from sufficient to pay rent for any type of dwelling.

Even with the 2020 income “spike” included, the overall median monthly income of homeless individuals from 2009 through 2024 has been only $294 a month. This sub-poverty income level explains homelessness. Individuals simply do not have enough money to pay for any type of housing.

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, responses to the homeless count demographic surveys 2017 to 2024.

Restorative implications: A basic living income is essential for escaping homelessness. Recent research at USC’s Center for Homelessness, Housing and Health Equity Research found that providing unhoused people in Los Angeles with $750 per month for just one year reduced homelessness by 30 percent.28

In addition to providing basic incomes and producing as much new housing as possible, the City and County need to look at the supply of space in the existing housing stock, both in available rental housing that can be rented using vouchers and the informal housing stock.

The informal rental network includes rooms rented in single-family homes and apartments. One way to reduce homelessness is to access this informal housing stock by giving basic income subsidies to unhoused people to help pay for it.29

Findings from the California Statewide Study of People Experiencing Homelessness provide convincing evidence about the importance of informal housing. Almost half (47 percent) of homeless individuals in Los Angeles County were informally housed before becoming homeless. Their median monthly rent was $185, with only one-quarter paying over $575.30

In the next 48 months, the City and County can increase access to informal housing by providing incentives for homeowners and leaseholders who potentially have space to sublet.

Newly homeless individuals report meager sources of income. Sources reported by individuals who are homeless for the first time and have been homeless for less than one year are shown in Figure 12.

The most widely received source of financial support is food stamps, received by half of respondents. This is followed by General Relief benefits of up to $221 a month from the county, received by slightly over one- quarter (26 percent) of individuals.

Disability benefits are reported by 10 percent of individuals, followed by earned income from employment, which is reported by 9 percent of individuals. Although only a small number still have jobs, it is noteworthy that another 46 percent of the new entrants into homelessness report that they are actively looking for work.

All of the other sources of financial support are in the low single digits: CalWORKs cash aid for families – five percent, unemployment insurance – 1.1 percent, veterans pension –one percent, and a fraction of a percent receive child support, CAPI or veteran’s disability.

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Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, responses to the homeless count demographic survey 2024.

Restorative implications: The meager sources of financial support for newly homeless individuals demonstrate that lack of income is the fundamental cause of homelessness. Homelessness can be prevented or ended quickly by providing individuals with a basic income or support for getting a job.

Sixty-one percent of all unsheltered working-age homeless individuals are engaged in work activities, based on demographic survey responses shown in Figure 13. This entails looking for a job more often than having a job, but the motivation of homeless individuals to support themselves through work is an under-utilized asset for society.

The employment status reported from 2022 to 2024 by unsheltered homeless individuals who are 25 to 64 years of age includes:

• 2 percent with full-time jobs • 3 percent with part-time jobs • 2 percent with temporary jobs • 9 percent who are self-employed • 40 percent looking for work

• 5 percent doing other types of work or informal work such as panhandling or recycling • 28 percent unemployed • 11 percent with disability

Slightly over a quarter (28 percent) of homeless adults are unemployed and not looking for work. Another 11 percent report that they are disabled.

It is important that 40 percent of all unsheltered adults are actively looking for work. These individuals want to earn money and be able to rent a place to sleep. Helping them become more employable and find a job is low- hanging fruit in the battle against homelessness.

Rates of active job seeking efforts are higher among some groups within the homeless population, making them especially good candidates for employment interventions:

• 35-44 years of age 42% • Not chronically homeless 46%

Source: Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, average of responses to the homeless count demographic survey 2022-2024.

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• Adults with children 46% • 25-34 years of age 47% • Homeless up to 3 months 47%

Seven percent of unsheltered individuals have jobs in the formal economy but are unable to afford rent – those with full-time, part-time and temporary jobs. Some of the largest employers of homeless workers are nonprofit organizations that are exempted from paying taxes based on their claim that they are benefiting the public. These include colleges and universities, churches, vocational rehabilitation and social service agencies, and civic organizations.

Benefiting from the labor of workers who are not paid enough to afford housing calls into question whether these tax-exempt organizations are benefiting the public. 31

This points to the need for minimum wage standards that enable workers to pay for necessities, protection against wage theft and fair scheduling laws that enable workers to anticipate when they will be needed for their primary job, so that they can take on a second job during their free hours.

Restorative implications: Employment interventions are most promising for parents with children, individuals up to 44 years of age, and individuals who have been homeless less than one year. In addition, labor laws are needed that protect employed workers and ensure fair wages and treatment. Living wages and fair employment conditions can protect homeless adults who recently been employed or are currently employed, but whose earnings have been insufficient to pay for housing.

This era of rising homelessness is also an era of rapidly rising housing prices and growing income inequality. These simultaneous trends are not coincidences. Research has demonstrated that unaffordable housing and income inequality are primary causes of homelessness.

Los Angeles County is a microcosm of these interacting forces. Among all counties in the United States, Los Angeles has the highest rate of homelessness, relative to the size of its population. Yet it does not have anywhere close to the highest poverty rate or the highest unemployment rate.32 It does not have the highest rate of illicit drug use or substance use disorder. It does not have the most generous social services or the greatest in-migration of low-income residents. Indeed, none of these factors is significantly correlated with rates of homelessness across the cities and counties in this country.33

What Los Angeles County does have is high housing prices and high inequality. There is a significant positive correlation between these factors and high homelessness across the United States.34 As residents report in the

demographic surveys, the number-one cause of homelessness is the inability to afford rent, which indicates a conflict between low incomes and high housing costs.

Despite all of the calls to increase the supply of rental housing, things are heading in the opposite direction. New construction starts in Los Angeles began slowing last year and now are falling even further. New building permits in the City of Los Angeles for the first half of 2024 were 10 percent lower than the same period a year earlier, and down 60 percent from five years ago.35

The same slowdown is true for the Greater Los Angeles region, where construction starts have decelerated and are at the lowest levels since 2012.36 Fewer new apartments going up is likely to result in higher rents.

One-fifth (20 percent) of renters in LA County, and 22 percent in the City, are in poverty. Over half (53 percent) of these renter households in poverty spend 90 percent or more of their income for rent.37 These overwhelmingly rent-burdened renters are in imminent danger of eviction.

All too often, low-income households are unable to pay rent. One quarter (24 percent) of renters in the Los Angeles Metro Area with household incomes under $25,000 say they are not caught up on rent. Almost half (47 percent) say that it is extremely likely or very likely that they will be evicted in the next two months.38 This housing insecurity is a pipeline into homelessness.

Where inequality is high, incomes are likely to be low for a large share of the population because the few at the top of the income distribution take a disproportionately large share of the wealth created in the economy.

Simultaneously, housing prices are likely to be high because those wealthy few can afford to pay top-dollar, driving up housing prices and rents for everyone else. Research has shown that national increases in income inequality funnel into some counties more than others based on the structure of their local economies—and the counties most impacted by rising inequality wind up with higher homelessness as a result.39

Restorative implication: Lower housing costs, more affordable housing, less income inequality, and robust homeless prevention programs are among the most effective ways to reduce the rate of homelessness at a city, county, and regional level. Displacing homeless residents from one public space to another will do nothing to address these underlying causes—and will only distract attention as these factors continue to force more housed residents into the unhoused population.

Housing affordability and income inequality are large societal forces with intimately damaging effects at a personal level. Research has identified mechanisms that transmit these forces into the homes and lives of individuals. These mechanisms are opportunities for public policy to short

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Source: City of Los Angeles Housing Department.

circuit the trajectory from cause to effect—and prevent homelessness before it starts.

When housing becomes unaffordable, for instance, residents are more likely to be evicted from their homes. In the most comprehensive economic analysis of evictions to date, researchers showed that a judge’s eviction order has such a damaging effect on income, indebtedness, credit scores, access to credit, and health that it significantly increases the likelihood that a family will become homeless. This outcome was not the result of worse financial circumstances or decision-making, or any other unique factors faced by the evicted tenants compared to the rest of the population. Rather, it was randomly inflicted by the leniency of some judges compared to others, generating a natural experiment where similar tenants in similar circumstances faced very different experiences—namely, being forced out of their home versus being allowed to stay.40

In the City of Los Angeles, an eviction moratorium protected most tenants at risk of eviction throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, after the expiration of the moratorium, evictions temporarily spiked to over 10,000 per month, as shown in Figure 14.

Eventually, they stabilized at around 7,000 to 8,000 per month in the latter half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. In total, 131,512 families received eviction notices from February 2023 to June 2024.

These eviction filings are overwhelmingly motivated by nonpayment of rent, as shown in Figure 15. Over 90 percent of eviction notices list this reason as the primary cause. Thus, there is a direct connection between

Figure 15: Causes for Eviction Filings in the City of Los Angeles, February 2023 to July 2024

Source: City of Los Angeles Housing Department.

unaffordable housing and homelessness when excessive rent burden forces people out of their homes.

Another important economic mechanism linked to homelessness is job loss. The lack of a stable job, paying a living wage, not only denies residents the necessary income to afford their rent. It also prevents them from qualifying for apartments in the first place. Without a reliable paycheck, residents cannot convince landlords that they will be reliable tenants. Yet they are resilient. When they lose a job, low-income residents do not typically become homeless immediately.

Instead, they try every other possible means at their disposal to pay their rent and maintain some form of shelter. They file for unemployment insurance and other government benefits, they dip into savings, they ask family and friends for assistance, they crash on couches, and only after they have exhausted all of these sources, do they enter the ranks of unhoused individuals who are enumerated by the annual homeless count.

That is why all of these sources of aid—from government assistance programs to social networks—are essential to preventing homelessness.41 It is also why increases in homelessness tend to lag increases in unemployment.

The rate of homelessness does not increase immediately because it takes time for unemployed residents to exhaust these alternative funds. Only

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after a couple years of extended unemployment do we typically find corresponding surges in the ranks of the unhoused.42

Restorative implication: Loss of housing and displacement are destructive to the finances and to the soul. Restorative interventions must minimize these traumas, not inflict them on unhoused residents. Just eviction policies should be enacted that protect renters from unjust evictions by requiring landlords to have just cause to terminate a tenant's lease and by ensuring the right to legal counsel. These policies will help close the pipeline from economic instability to homelessness.

Restoring the lives of unsheltered residents is an immense task. It will be an Olympic achievement for Los Angeles to accomplish this. Los Angeles will be able to show a face in 2028 that is not curated fakery, masking a streetscape formed by economic inequality. Los Angeles will become an exemplar for other cities.

Responsibility for these actions falls on the City of Los Angeles, which is the host and leading financial backer for the games, the County of Los Angeles, which is the primary human service provider and the countywide lead for addressing homelessness, and all of the other 87 cities in the county.

Some cities, including Lancaster and Long Beach, have already announced intentions to displace homeless residents.43 The Santa Monica city council is deliberating on a plan to prohibit the meager comfort of blankets, pillows or bedrolls while sleeping outdoors.44

Displacement merely rearranges the status quo. Homeless individuals must exist somewhere. Ad hoc displacement moves the location of homeless residents to a different neighborhood or city without reducing homelessness.

The essential objective is to enable unsheltered individuals to have stable housing. Ten restorative actions will make Los Angeles a credible host for the 2028 games. The ten actions are:

1. Address homelessness as a problem of inadequate income by providing help in getting a job or providing a basic income.

2. Increase early exits from homelessness through interventions that result in stable housing. This includes using predictive screening tools that accurately identifying individuals who are likely to be persistently homeless so that they can be helped before, or soon after, they become homeless rather than after long-term harm has accumulated in their lives.

3. Provide incentives to make affordable space in the low-income rental market and the existing informal housing stock available for unsheltered individuals.

4. Extend restorative interventions to couch-homeless individuals who need employment or basic income interventions that will enable them to pay rent and have a claim to housing.

5. Increase the supply of affordable housing.

6. Protect renters from unjust evictions by requiring landlords to have just cause to terminate a tenant's lease and by ensuring the right to legal counsel.

7. Prevent homelessness through jail and shelter diversion, emergency rent assistance, landlord conflict mitigation, and income support.

8. Expand record expungement programs, especially for crimes related to homelessness and poverty. Complement law enforcement interventions with the engagement of housing providers, health, mental health and substance abuse services, community colleges, and case managers who provide whole-person support.

9. Enact and enforce labor laws that protect employed workers, ensure payment of living wages, and require fair scheduling.

10. Help newly housed individuals to overcome their isolation through service components that build social support networks and community ties.

24 Excelling for the 2028 Olympics

We are grateful for the insights provided by Benjamin Henwood, who is a professor in the University of Southern California Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work and has served as the methodological lead for the Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count since 2017.

1 International Olympic Committee, Olympic Values – Excellence, Respect and Friendship, https://olympics.com/ioc/olympic-values.

2 International Olympic Committee, The IOC as the Owner of the Olympic Games, https://olympics.com/ioc/human-rights/the-ioc-as-the-owner-of-the-olympic-games,and IOC Strategic Framework on Human Rights, https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Beyond-the-Games/Human- Rights/IOC-Strategic-Framework-on-Human-Rights.pdf.

3 Kim Willsher, “Thousands of homeless people removed from Paris region in pre- Olympics ‘social cleansing,’” The Guardian, (June 3, 2024), https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/03/homeless-people-removed-from-paris-before-olympics.

4 Jenna Chandler, “LA ‘sterilized’ its streets for the ’84 Olympics—how will it treat the homeless in 2028?,” LA Curbed, (July 12, 2018) https://la.curbed.com/2018/7/12/17454676/los-angeles-olympics-homeless-police-militarization-security.

5 In Grants Pass v. Johnson, the Supreme Court sided with Grants Pass in a 6-3 decision, ruling that an ordinance passed by the Oregon city that essentially made it illegal for homeless residents to camp on all public property was not unconstitutional. Marisa Kendal, “Supreme Court gives cities in California and beyond more power to crack down on homeless camps, CalMatters, (June 28, 2024), https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/06/california-homeless-camps-grants-pass-ruling/.

6 Doug Smith, “Gov. Gavin Newsom orders state agencies to clear homeless camps and encourages cities to do so,” Los Angeles Times, (July 25, 2024), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-07-25/gov-gavin-newsom-orders-state- agencies-to-clear-homeless-camps-and-encourages-cities-to-do-so, and Taryn Luna, “Newsom threatens to take money from counties that don’t reduce homelessness,” Los Angeles Times (August 8, 2024), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-08/gavin-newsom-homelessness-fight-california-counties.

7 Danielle Chiriguayo, “LA Mayor Karen Bass says Olympics could help solve homelessness,” KCRW, (March 12, 2024) https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/press-play-with-madeleine-brand/olympics-anaheim-antisemitism-peanuts/karen-bass.

8 County of Los Angeles Homeless Initiative, Pathways Home Data Dashboard, (August 5, 2024), https://homeless.lacounty.gov/pathway-home/.

9 The median rate per single room for the 10 most recent Inside Safe motel contracts was $107 per day. https://cityclerk.lacity.org/lacityclerkconnect/index.cfm?fa=c.search&tab=contract (contracts for motel rooms containing words “Inside Safe”).

10 Danielle Chiriguayo, op cit.

11 Ibid.

12 As of November 30, 2023, the Inside Safe program reportedly moved 1,951 people out of outdoor dwelling places, although just 256 of these individuals were placed in permanent housing. David Zahniser, Ruben Vives and Doug Smith, “Bass, one year in: 26 Excelling for the 2028 Olympics Progress on homelessness but still a steep climb,” Los Angeles Times (December 11, 2023), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-12-11/mayor-karen-bass-inside-safe-program-finishes-its-first-year. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs reported housing 1,790 homeless veterans in 2023, in the greater Los Angeles region, which includes five counties extending from Los Angeles up to San Luis Obispo. Hannah Sentenac, “Greater LA VA Houses 1,790 Veterans in 2023, the Most of Any City in the U.S.,” U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (February 7, 2024), https://www.va.gov/greater-los-angeles-health-care/stories/greater-la-va-houses-1790-veterans-in-2023-the-most-of-any-city-in-the-us/. The Veterans Administration (VA) initiated a new ‘one team’ approach and expanded access and coordinated community services at each Service Planning Area. The VA uses a housing-first approach with sufficient vouchers and support services. This demonstrates that even in a high-cost housing market, there can be effective interventions for people who are unsheltered and have disabilities. In the 2023 demographic survey, 7.2 percent of respondents reported being veterans. In the 2024 demographic survey, this share decreased to 5.6 percent, indicating that placing veterans in housing may have contributed to the decrease in unsheltered homelessness.

13 The Los Angeles Homeless Service Authority (LAHSA) covers all of Los Angeles County except for the cities of Glendale, Pasadena and Long Beach. Population descriptions in this paper that are based on data from LAHSA’s demographic surveys have been produced using the sample weights assigned to each survey respondent, beginning with the 2011 survey. Weights were not assigned to respondents in the 2009 survey, so information from that survey is based on counts of respondents.

14 Ben Henwood, USC Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, “The LA CoC Pit Count Methodology has 3 Components,” 2024 Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count, slide 12, https://www.lahsa.org/documents?id=8163-2024-greater-los-angeles-homeless-count-results.pdf.

15 This population model was built using data from the 2017 homeless count and is described in the report by Jane Carlen, Estimating the Annual Size of the Homeless Population in Los Angeles Using Point-in-Time Data, Economic Roundtable, (2018), https://economicrt.org/publication/estimating-the-annual-size-of-the-homeless-population/. Table 3 on page 10 shows the point-in-time versus annualized distribution of duration of homelessness. Duration for the annualized population may occur over several stints. The homeless count collects information about duration of homelessness while people are still homeless and before it is known how long they will continue to be homeless. This self-reported information tends to be rounded, creating inaccurate population clumps. The model smooths clumped data to generate the distribution shown in Figure 2. The exit rates from homelessness are used to construct the homeless population over a year. This incorporates an estimate of the probability that individuals experience multiple stints of homelessness during a year, based on data from the homeless count.

16 The VI-SPDAT is a widely used screening tool but it does not meet this predictive need because it was not developed by using empirical data that links current attributes with future outcomes. The predictive screening tools developed by the Economic Roundtable used records for over half a million people that link information from records of Los Angeles County departments, LAHSA HMIS, and the California Employment Development Department. These linked records include fourteen years of information, making it possible to predict future outcomes based on current attributes. The Roundtable’s tools correctly identify 7.3 times more people who will be persistently homeless than random selection. The tools are described in a report by Halil Toros, Daniel Flaming and Patrick Burns, Early Intervention to Prevent Persistent Homelessness: Predictive Models for Identifying Unemployed Workers and Young Adults who become Persistently Homeless, Economic Roundtable (March 2019). https://economicrt.org/publication/early-intervention-to-prevent-persistent-homelessness/

17 The method for estimating the distribution of individuals experiencing homelessness by type of homelessness is described by Daniel Flaming, Anthony W. Orlando, Patrick Burns, and Seth Pickens, Locked Out: Unemployment and Homelessness in the Covid Economy, Economic Roundtable, (2021), pages 28-30. This estimated distribution varies by geographic area. The estimated distribution shown in this paper is for Los Angeles County. https://economicrt.org/publication/locked-out/.

18 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, “Homeless Definition,” https://files.hudexchange.info/resources/documents/HomelessDefinition_Recordkeepi ngRequirementsandCriteria.pdf.

19 The full HUD definition of chronic homelessness also includes individuals who have been homeless on at least four separate occasions in the last three years, as long as the combined occasions equal at least 12 months, and also individuals who meet the criteria for chronic homeless before residing in an institutional care facility, including jail, substance abuse or mental health treatment facility, hospital, or other similar facility, for fewer than 90 days. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, “Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing (HEARTH): Defining Chronically Homeless Final Rule,” (2015), https://www.hudexchange.info/resource/4847/hearth-defining-chronically-homeless-final-rule/.

20 Some of the respondents identified more than one of the seven reasons as causes of their homelessness, so the total of percentages for the seven responses is greater than the unduplicated total of 36 percent.

21 Aging out of the foster care system does not seem to account for the increasingly young age of entrants into homelessness. In the 2024 demographic survey, only 2.2 percent of individuals 34 years of age or younger reported that aging our, or leaving, foster care was a reason why they became homeless.

22 Halil Toros, Daniel Flaming and Patrick Burns, Early Intervention to Prevent Persistent Homelessness: Predictive Models for Identifying Unemployed Workers and Young Adults who become Persistently Homeless, Economic Roundtable (March 2019). Figure 3 on page 12 uses data from the 2016 and 2017 demographic surveys that show rates of serious mental illness increasing from 21 percent among newly homeless individuals to 55 percent among chronically homeless individuals, and rates of physical disabilities increasing from 16 percent among newly homeless individuals to 39 percent among chronically homeless individuals. https://economicrt.org/publication/early-intervention-to-prevent-persistent-homelessness/

23 A fifth demographic survey, in 2017, also asked about educational attainment, however there appear to be coding anomalies in the data, so the results were not included in this paper. 28 Excelling for the 2028 Olympics

24 There is also strong evidence for the effectiveness of supported employment and supported education. These programs are not readily available and not well funded.

25 John Raphling, You Have to Move! The Cruel and Ineffective Criminalization of Unhoused People in Los Angeles, Human Rights Watch, (2024), https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/08/14/you-have-move/cruel-and-ineffective-criminalization-unhoused-people-los-angeles#

26 Gary Blasi, “A Grounded Approach to Our Homelessness Crisis,” Real Property Journal, (2021), https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/gary-l-blasi.

27 The change in the Consumer Price Index is from first half of 1985 to the first half of 2024 for the Los Angeles region, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=dropmap&series_id=CUURS4 9ASA0,CUUSS49ASA0 The change in HUD’s fair market rent (FMR) is for a zero-bedroom unit in Los Angeles County from fiscal year 1984-1985 to fiscal year 2024-2025, HUD Office of Policy Development and Research, https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html.

28 Gary Blasi, Benjamin F. Henwood, Sam Tsemberis, and Dan Flaming, Basic Income Grants to Reduce Homelessness in Los Angeles, USC Homeless Policy Research Institute, (2024), https://hpri.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Basic-Income-Grants-to- Reduce-Homelessness-in-Los-Angeles_draft.pdf

29 Ibid.

30 The California Statewide Study of People Experiencing Homelessness (https://homelessness.ucsf.edu/our-impact/studies/california-statewide-study-people- experiencing-homelessness), conducted by The University of California, San Francisco Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative, is the largest representative study of homelessness in the United States since the mid-1990s. We are grateful to Professor Margot Kushel, who directed study, for providing this breakout of responses from 790 people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles County. 1. Type of last housing a. Leaseholder: 31.4% b. Non-Leaseholder (i.e., informal): 46.9% c. Institutional Setting: 21.7% 2. Cost of last housing (dollars per month) a. Median $350, (range from 25th to 75th quartiles: $0 to $800) b. Leaseholders: median $700, (range from 25th to 75th quartiles: $350 to $1,100) c. Non-Leaseholders: median $185, (range from 25th to 75th quartiles: $0 to $575) 3. Monthly income (on average) in the 6 months prior to this episode of homelessness: median $935, (range from 25th to 75th quartiles $221-$2,200) 4. Cash Assistance to Prevent Homelessness a. Think a one-time subsidy of $5,000-$10,000 would have helped stay housed for at least 2 years (either keeping last housing OR moving to new housing): 79.6% b. Think a monthly subsidy of $300-$500 would have helped stay housed for at least 2 years (either keeping last housing OR moving to new housing): 67.4% c. Think a permanent voucher, like Section 8, would have helped stay housed for at least 2 years (either keeping last housing OR moving to new housing): 90.5% 5. Cash Assistance for Rehousing a. Think a one-time subsidy of $5,000-$10,000 would help with rehousing: 93.8% (9.6% a little, 84.2% a lot) b. Think a monthly subsidy of $300-$500 would help with rehousing: 86.7% (21.8% a little, 64.9% a lot) c. Think a permanent voucher, like Section 8, would help with rehousing: 96.9% (5.6% a little, 91.2% a lot)

31 The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) classifies residents of homeless shelters and missions, as well as unsheltered homeless individuals as residents of non-institutional group quarters. Applying the Economic Roundtable’s filtering steps (see Data Appendix A-9, page 97, in Locked Out, cited earlier) to the ACS 2018-2022 Public Use Microdata Sample to identify employed homeless workers in Los Angeles County, the industry distribution of their employers is: • Restaurants & Hotels 14% • Retail 13% • Temp Agencies & Janitorial 12% • Education 11% • Personal Services & Repair 8% • Transport. & Warehousing 7% • Construction 6% • Social Assistance 5% • Health Care 4% • Durable Manufacturing 3% • Entertainment 3% • Nondurable Manufacturing 3% • Professional Services 2% • Finance & Real Estate 2% • Other Industries 7%

32 For example, out of over 3,100 counties in the United States, the poverty rate of Los Angeles County ranked #1,470 in the year 2021, according to government estimates. See https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/county-level-data-sets-download-data/ for more details.

33 Gregg Colburn and Clayton Page Aldern, Homelessness Is a Housing Problem: How Structural Factors Explain U.S. Problems, University of California Press (2022).

34 Colburn and Aldern (2022). Thomas H. Byrne, Benjamin F. Henwood, and Anthony W. Orlando, A Rising Tide Drowns Unstable Boats: How Inequality Creates Homelessness, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 693(1): 28-45 (2021).

35 Gabriel Kahn, “Building slowdown could further tighten housing market: Drop in building permits crimps Los Angeles's goals for creating more homes, Crosstown, (July 24, 2024), https://xtown.la/2024/07/24/housing-supply-los-angeles/.

36 CBRE, “Greater Los Angeles Multifamily Figures Q4 2023,” (February 15, 2024), https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/greater-los-angeles-multifamily-figures-q4-2023#

37 U.S. Census Bureau Public Use Microdata Sample 2018-2022, records for Los Angeles City and County, analysis by the Economic Roundtable, https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/microdata/access.html30 Excelling for the 2028 Olympics

38 U.S. Census Bureau, Pulse Survey Public Use Records, average of surveys 1-64, data is for Los Angeles and Orange Counties, analysis by the Economic Roundtable, https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/datasets.html

39 Byrne, Henwood, and Orlando (2021).

40 Robert Collinson, John Eric Humphries, Nicholas Mader, Davin Reed, Daniel Tannenbaum, and Winnie van Dijk, Eviction and Poverty in American Cities, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(1): 57-120 (2024).

41 Daniel Flaming, Seth Pickens, and Patrick Burns, Breaking the Fall: Successful Homeless Interventions in the Covid Pandemic, Economic Roundtable, (2022), https://economicrt.org/publication/breaking-the-fall/.

42 Daniel Flaming, Anthony W. Orlando, Patrick Burns, and Seth Pickens, Locked Out: Unemployment and Homelessness in the Covid Economy, Economic Roundtable, (2021), https://economicrt.org/publication/locked-out/.

43 Mayor R. Rex Parris, of Lancaster, is quoted as saying, “I’m warming up the bulldozer,” Shawn Hubler and Mike Baker, “After Homelessness Ruling, Cities Weigh Whether to Clear Encampments,” New York Times, (July 13, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/13/us/homeless-camps-supreme-court-ruling.html;and the City of Long Beach announced that it will clear problematic encampments based on residential complaints and police responses, Ruben Vives, “Long Beach escalated citywide homeless sweeps. But where will the unhoused go?” Los Angeles Times, (August 26, 2024), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-26/long-beach-homeless-encampments-cleared.

44 Ruben Vives, “Santa Monica to consider revising homeless ban to prohibit pillows and blankets outdoors,” Los Angeles Times, (August 28, 2024), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-28/santa-monica-considers-sleeping-ban-prohibiting-use-of-pillows-and-blankets.

Work is underway on a report documenting encampment clearances across Los Angeles: where they happen, how they are recorded, what happens to the people moved, and how the pattern relates to major events and venue corridors.

A summary and the full document will be posted here.